[2025 Edition] Japanese Used Car Exports Are Unstoppable!? Behind the Scenes of the "1.5 Trillion Yen Market" and Future Outlook

Hello everyone! Have you noticed the "We Buy Cars High!" signs around town or seen the news about "car thefts" lately? Actually, right now, Japanese used car exports are experiencing a historic boom.

It used to be called a "1 Trillion Yen Industry," but now it has ballooned into a massive 1.5 Trillion Yen scale. In 2023, the industry recorded a record-breaking 1.53 million units exported , and that momentum hasn't stopped in 2024.   

"Why are they selling so well?" "Where in the world are they going?" To answer these questions, let's break down the latest trends for 2024–2025 in a simple, easy-to-understand way!

1. Why Are Japanese Used Cars Selling Like Hotcakes?

There are three main reasons. These factors have combined perfectly to create a "compound explosion of demand."

① The Weak Yen Bargain Sale

The biggest reason is definitely this. With the dollar hovering around the 140–150 yen range, from the perspective of overseas buyers, "Japanese cars are effectively 30% off."  Since they can get them cheaper, overseas customers are thinking, "Let's buy a better car!" As a result, high-value vehicles like Alphards and Land Cruisers are being shipped overseas in droves.   

② New Cars Are Back, So Used Cars Are Abundant

Remember when new cars couldn't be made due to the semiconductor shortage? That issue has been resolved, and new cars are finally being delivered in Japan. This means the "trade-ins" (good quality used cars) are flooding into the auctions. Because there is "plenty of stock," exports are moving smoothly.   

③ "Unbreakable" Is Justice

Due to global inflation, new car prices are skyrocketing overseas too. In this climate, Japanese cars that are "cheap, fuel-efficient, and rarely break down" offer the ultimate cost-performance ratio. Especially in countries without railway systems, Japanese cars are literally a lifeline.   

2. Where Are They Going? The Changing World Map

The export map is being redrawn. Here are the countries you need to watch.

🇷🇺 Russia: Buying Despite Sanctions!

You might be thinking, "Wait, aren't exports banned?" True, huge sanctions were imposed on engines over 1.9L and hybrids. But Russian buyers don't give up.   

• Shift to Small Cars: Popularity has concentrated on non-banned compact cars (like the Vitz/Yaris and Fit).
• Loophole Routes: There are rumors of cars entering Russia via "third countries" like China and Kyrgyzstan. As a result, while volume dropped slightly, Russia remains a massive market, holding strong at #2 in the world.   

🇦🇪 UAE (Dubai): The World's Relay Station

Ranking #1 in 2024 exports is the UAE. But the people in the UAE aren't driving all these cars. This is a "Transit Hub." Cars are converted to left-hand drive, repaired, and then re-exported to Africa or Central Asia. It functions like a "Hub Port" for the entire world.   

🇲🇳 Mongolia: The Prius Empire

Mongolia is showing amazing growth, up 40% year-on-year. It's a freezing country, but the Prius is super popular! However, traffic congestion in the capital, Ulaanbaatar, has gotten so bad that rumors of strict license plate restrictions are swirling. This seems to be causing a "last-minute rush" demand: "Buy now before they ban it!".   

🇳🇿 New Zealand: Regulatory Rollercoaster

The market here has been shaken by the "Clean Car Standard" environmental regulations. It looked like rules were going to get super strict, but with the change in government, there are moves to relax them. Exports are increasing as dealers navigate these policy gaps.

3. Watch Out! The "2 Major Risks" for 2025

The market is hot, but there are pitfalls. Here are the two things exporters are most afraid of right now.

⚠️ Kenya's "8-Year Rule" and the 2025 Problem

Kenya, a key market in Africa, has an ironclad rule: "You cannot import cars manufactured more than 8 years ago". The end of 2025 is a huge critical point.

• 2018 model year cars must arrive at the Port of Mombasa by December 31, 2025.
• If the ship is late and arrives on Jan 1st... that car is banned from entry and could become worthless trash! We expect a fierce battle for ship space in late 2025 due to this "last-minute export rush."

🚢 The "No Ships" Problem (RoRo Vessel Shortage)

Because China is exporting EVs (Electric Vehicles) to the world at a furious pace, the dedicated car carrier ships (RoRo ships) are constantly full. "We have cars to sell, but no ships to carry them!" This situation continues, leading to more exporters stuffing cars into containers to get them out.   

4. The Sad Reality: Stolen Cars and the Dark Side

Behind the export boom, car thefts are surging. In 2024, theft cases exceeded 6,000. The main targets are the Land Cruiser, Alphard, and Lexus LX. Stolen cars are taken to "Yards" (walled-off workshops), where they are dismantled (cut) or have their VINs swapped ("Niko-ichi" / two-in-one) to be illegally exported overseas. We live in an era where strong security measures are essential to protect your beloved car.

5. Summary: What Happens in 2025?

In 2025, Japanese used car exports are expected to remain in a "Plateau State" (Stable at a high level).

• Tailwinds: As long as the weak yen continues, Japanese cars are a "bargain" for the world.
• Headwinds: Ship shortages, stricter regulations in various countries, and the rise of Chinese cars.

The future of the export business isn't just about sending cheap cars in bulk anymore. It will be a year requiring "Strategy"—delivering high-quality hybrids and SUVs while cleverly navigating regulatory gaps.

The car you let go of might be supporting someone's life in a faraway country right now!

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※Data in this article is based on information available as of late 2024. Please note that regulations and exchange rates in each country fluctuate daily.