Key points
Based on data from the past three years, AI predictions suggest that prices will likely continue to rise, making early purchases after April a good strategy.
USS Auctions is the largest used car auction in Japan, and its average winning bid serves as a key indicator of trends in the used car market. USS Auctions publishes monthly data, and this report provides an overview of the current used car market based on that information.
How Was Last Year?
In 2024, the average annual winning bid for vehicles at USS Auctions was 1.05 million yen. The highest monthly average was in February at 1.185 million yen, while the lowest was in April at 883,000 yen. The primary reason for the price spike in February is that April marks the start of a new fiscal year in Japan, driving increased purchasing demand. Corporate fleet demand and new employees buying vehicles push overall market prices higher. Additionally, dealerships and sales outlets liquidate inventory ahead of the fiscal year-end in March, increasing the number of high-priced vehicles entering the auction market. Furthermore, demand for used cars overseas tends to increase at the beginning of the year, causing higher bids for newer and more expensive vehicles from export traders.
On the other hand, the drop in used car prices in April can be attributed to the peak of new life preparation demand occurring by the end of March, followed by a decline in purchases. Dealerships and used car sellers, having already sold off high-value inventory by March, tend to introduce more affordable vehicles into the market, leading to a lower average winning bid. Additionally, after the fiscal year ends, an increase in the circulation of lower-priced vehicles results in a decline in overall prices. Moreover, Japan's Golden Week holiday in late April to early May shifts consumer interest toward travel and leisure, leading to a slowdown in car sales. Consequently, dealerships focus on inventory clearance, which further drives prices down.
USS Auction Monthly Data：https://www.ussnet.co.jp/ir/library/monthly/index.html
What Do the Past Data Show?
An analysis of the past three years' winning bid prices shows that the average price was 1.003 million yen. The highest recorded price was in September 2022 at 1.221 million yen, while the lowest was in April 2021 at 785,000 yen. The average price was in the 900,000-yen range in 2021 but exceeded 1 million yen in 2022, continuing to rise in subsequent years. The high prices persisted in 2023, and by February 2024, they had reached 1.185 million yen. Historically, prices tend to spike in February and drop in April. The sharp price increase in September 2022 was due to the depreciation of the yen, which boosted export demand. The lowest recorded price in April 2021 was a result of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact, which significantly slowed down the used car market.
Detailed Data
| Year and Month | Successful Vehicle Transaction Price (in thousand yen) |
|---|---|
| 2021/4/1 | 785 |
| 2021/5/1 | 848 |
| 2021/6/1 | 859 |
| 2021/7/1 | 922 |
| 2021/8/1 | 864 |
| 2021/9/1 | 922 |
| 2021/10/1 | 938 |
| 2021/11/1 | 938 |
| 2021/12/1 | 932 |
| 2022/1/1 | 979 |
| 2022/2/1 | 1006 |
| 2022/3/1 | 911 |
| 2022/4/1 | 929 |
| 2022/5/1 | 990 |
| 2022/6/1 | 1079 |
| 2022/7/1 | 1159 |
| 2022/8/1 | 1115 |
| 2022/9/1 | 1221 |
| 2022/10/1 | 1134 |
| 2022/11/1 | 1060 |
| 2022/12/1 | 997 |
| 2023/1/1 | 1019 |
| 2023/2/1 | 1002 |
| 2023/3/1 | 898 |
| 2023/4/1 | 883 |
| 2023/5/1 | 950 |
| 2023/6/1 | 1085 |
| 2023/7/1 | 1066 |
| 2023/8/1 | 1038 |
| 2023/9/1 | 1074 |
| 2023/10/1 | 1063 |
| 2023/11/1 | 1061 |
| 2023/12/1 | 1016 |
| 2024/1/1 | 1080 |
| 2024/2/1 | 1185 |
| 2024/3/1 | 1100 |
When is the Best Time to Buy in 2025?
Based on data from the past three years, AI forecasts indicate a high likelihood that prices will continue to rise.
Key Predictions:
For the 2025 used car market, AI analysis of past trends suggests that prices will likely keep increasing. Particularly from February to March, demand ahead of the new fiscal year is expected to drive prices upward. AI predicts that in February 2025, the average winning bid could reach 1.243 million yen. Although April historically sees price declines, the forecast for 2025 suggests a high level of 1.285 million yen, maintaining a historically high price range. This is attributed to the overall increase in used car market prices. However, depending on market conditions, there is still a possibility that prices may follow the usual downward trend in April.
Important Points
There is a possibility that prices may remain high throughout the year, so securing inventory before further price increases is advisable. The period from April to September might offer relatively good opportunities for purchases. However, these are just forecasts, and market prices fluctuate significantly due to global economic conditions. It is recommended to base bidding decisions on the average winning bid of individual vehicles.
For more effective bidding strategies, feel free to consult our agents, who can provide professional guidance. Keeping an eye on market trends will help ensure well-timed purchases.
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