Hello, everyone!
As we kick off 2026, a shockwave is hitting the used car export industry. For a long time, we’ve enjoyed the tailwinds of a historic weak yen, but as of late January, the tides are turning.
"Is the export boom ending?" "Which countries are still buying?"
To answer these burning questions, I’ve analyzed the latest market data and trends. Let's dive in!
1. From 159 to 152! The "Weak Dollar" is Driving the Shift
The biggest topic right now is the exchange rate.
After years of historic yen depreciation, the move finally appears to have hit a wall. In late January 2026, the dollar–yen rate, which had peaked near 159 yen per dollar, suddenly reversed and returned to the 152 range.
Importantly, this shift is not being driven primarily by changes in Japan’s interest rate policy. The dominant factor is U.S. dollar weakness. With the Trump administration openly favoring a weaker dollar to support U.S. manufacturing, and the Federal Reserve signaling a pause through so-called “rate checks,” market sentiment has shifted toward selling dollars.
From a technical perspective, Japan’s real interest rate r is defined as:
r = i − π
where i is the nominal policy rate and π is the inflation rate.
Currently, Japan’s nominal policy rate stands at approximately 0.75%, while inflation remains around 2%. This implies a real interest rate of roughly −1.25%.
Under normal circumstances, such a negative real rate would support a weaker yen. However, at present, the scale of U.S.-driven dollar selling pressure is overwhelming this structural yen weakness, tipping the balance in favor of yen appreciation.
2. 2025 was a Record-Breaker! But is Jan 2026 a Speed Bump?
2025 was truly the "Golden Age" for used car exports. The annual volume jumped 9.1% year-on-year to approximately 1.7 million units—marking the 5th consecutive year of growth and the 3rd consecutive year of record-breaking highs. With global shipping logistics finally stabilizing, Japanese cars were flying off the shelves globally.
However, the flash report for January 2026 shows a bit of a slowdown. Volume reached 94,810 units, a 1.8% decrease compared to the same month last year. This is the second month in a row of negative growth, largely due to a nearly 20% drop in exports to Russia and Mongolia.
Recent Export Stats at a Glance
| Period | Results | Key Highlights |
| Full Year 2024 | 1.57 million units | Record high driven by weak yen |
| Full Year 2025 | 1.70 million units | +9.1% New record high! |
| January 2026 | 94,810 units | -1.8% YoY dip |
3. Global Hotspots: Who’s Buying and Who’s Blocking?
In the current market, "where" you send your cars makes all the difference.
#1 Destination: UAE (United Arab Emirates)
The UAE has held the top spot for two years running! It’s not just for local buyers; the UAE serves as a massive "hub" for re-exporting Japanese cars to Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia.
Regulation Hurdles in Russia and Mongolia
- Russia: New sanctions have banned the export of cars over 1900cc, as well as all hybrids (HEVs) and EVs. While volumes are down, small-engine gasoline cars (like the Toyota Vitz or Corolla) still have a loyal following.
- Mongolia: In the capital, Ulaanbaatar, a new rule prohibits issuing license plates for cars over 10 years old. This has caused a sharp decline in older, affordable exports to the region.
Thailand’s HEV Comeback
While the world pushes for EVs, Thailand is giving Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) a second look. The government has decided to maintain a reduced excise tax rate (6–9%) for HEVs until 2032. This is great news for Japanese favorites like the Prius and Aqua!
The "3-Year-Old" Fever in the USA
In the U.S., there’s a massive shortage of 3-year-old used cars due to the production slump during the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, these late-model cars are selling for prices nearly identical to brand-new ones.
4. Auction Prices: Export Demand is Keeping Markets High
You might think that a stronger yen would make cars cheaper to buy at auction, but that’s not the case yet. As of January 2026, Auto Auction (AA) prices are at record highs.
Even though more cars are entering the market because people are trading in their old cars for new ones, export demand is so strong that it’s pulling the market up, leaving domestic retail buyers "behind" in the price race.
Popular models for export include:
- Lexus RX / Suzuki Jimny Sierra: Extreme competition globally!
- Toyota Prius / Voxy: High demand keeps trade-in values sky-high.
5. Summary: Navigating 2026
The yen’s shift in January 2026 might be the end of the "easy mode" era for exports. Moving forward, the winners will be those who:
- Watch the Currency: Stay flexible as "dollar-led" fluctuations create volatility.
- Pick the Right Markets: Pivot away from regulated zones (like Mongolia) and focus on hubs like the UAE or HEV-friendly markets like Thailand.
- Source Smart: Take advantage of the increased supply in the domestic market to grab high-quality units that global buyers crave.
2026 will be a year of change, but the global trust in Japanese quality remains unbeaten. Stay informed and ride the wave!
Data References: PR TIMES: Auction Market Report Gaitame.com: 2026 Exchange Rate Forecast Repro World: Used Car Export Trends 2026 iATA: Used Car Export Statistics JETRO: Thailand Automotive Policy Report JUMVEA / Japan Automobile Conference: 2025 Performance 32cars.ru: 2026 US Used Car Market Analysis
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