Hello everyone. Welcome to 2026. Our used car export industry is currently being buffeted by a wave of "compounded changes" unlike anything we've seen before.
"The Yen is weak, so cars will sell themselves"—honestly, those days might be in the rear-view mirror. Looking at the Ministry of Finance data, while the total export value (HS Code 87.03) remains huge at around 1.6 trillion yen , a closer look reveals that the market is in a "Plateau State"—stagnating or balancing at a high level.
In this post, I'll break down the three big waves of 2025-2026—"Sanctions," "Regulations," and "Logistics"—and how to ride them from a field-level perspective.
1. The "Bizarre Phenomenon" in the Russian Market: Mild Hybrids Unleashed?
First, let's talk about the topic on everyone's mind: Russia. If you think "Japanese cars are done for because of sanctions," you might be missing a crucial shift happening on the ground.
The New Interpretation: Mild Hybrids are "Safe"
In late 2024, big news raced through the industry: the interpretation that "Mild Hybrid vehicles (Mild Hybrids) are exportable" took hold.
Previously, anything labeled "Hybrid" was considered a no-go. However, Mild Hybrids (like the Suzuki Hustler, Solio, Nissan Dayz, etc.), which cannot run on the electric motor alone, are now widely considered "exempt from electric vehicle restrictions". As a result, auction bidding wars for Vladivostok-bound units are heating up again.
The Loophole Battle: Kyrgyzstan and Belarus
Of course, gasoline cars over 1,900cc and full Hybrids are still strictly banned. This is where "detour routes" come into play in the shadows. Specifically, exports to Kyrgyzstan have shown an astronomical increase of 120% year-over-year. There is no way a country of 7 million people needs that many cars. It's an open secret that most are flowing into Russia, but entering 2026, the crackdown on this route is stricter than ever.
Furthermore, within Russia, the "Utilization Fee" (scrappage tax) was hiked in January 2026 as an inflation adjustment. This is effectively a tariff hike. With Chinese cars now gripping 60% of the market , Japanese cars are fighting to survive as "high-priced items of desire."
2. Logistics Crisis: The Reality of the Red Sea & Panama
"I bought the car cheap, but the ocean freight killed my profit..." Sound familiar?
- Red Sea Paralysis: Due to the situation in Yemen, the Suez Canal route remains too risky. Many ships are forced to go around the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa), adding 10 to 14 days to the voyage. Slower ship rotation means less space and stubbornly high freight rates.
- Panama Canal Recovery?: While water levels are recovering , logistics to North America and the Caribbean remain unstable. The flexibility to use "Hub & Spoke" transport (transshipping via Dubai or Singapore) is now a required skill for exporters.
3. Global Regulatory Changes: The Fork in the Road Between Heaven and Hell
In 2026, the situation varies drastically by country—truly a case of "Heaven and Hell."
[Heaven] New Zealand: Massive CCS Relaxation!
This is huge news! The environmental regulation "Clean Car Standard (CCS)," which has tormented exporters, has been significantly relaxed starting January 2026 following the change in government. The CO2 penalty has been slashed to about one-quarter (NZ$7.50 per gram). This means pure gasoline SUVs like the Mazda CX-5, RAV4, and Harrier are back in the game. The NZ market is currently a prime opportunity for re-entry.
[Hell] Kenya: The Wall of the 2018 Model
On the flip side, the East African giant, Kenya, is strict. Due to the "8-Year Rule," imports of 2018 models became completely banned as of January 1, 2026. If you still have 2018 stock on the water that shipped late last year... unfortunately, it cannot enter Kenya. You need to urgently arrange for transit to Uganda or South Sudan.
Mongolia: No More License Plates?
In Mongolia, to combat congestion in Ulaanbaatar, restrictions on issuing new number plates for imports have begun. The surge in exports in 2025 (+40%) was a "last-minute rush" before these rules hit. It's no longer a market where "anything sells," so keep a close eye on local news.
4. Three Strategies to Survive
Finally, here are three strategies to navigate these rough waters.
- Ride the "Mild HV" Wave The regulatory relaxation (reinterpretation) for Russia could close at any time. Moving Suzuki and Nissan Kei/Compact Mild Hybrids now is the solid play.
- Stockpile Gasoline SUVs for NZ With the CCS relaxation, demand for gasoline cars in NZ is guaranteed to spike. The winning formula for the first half of 2026 is to stock up on good-condition gasoline SUVs, not just Hybrids.
- The "Dismantling" Business in UAE For low-year models regulated out of Africa or Mongolia, send them to the UAE (Dubai/Sharjah) for "Dismantling & Parts". The UAE has become a global hub for used parts. If you can't sell it as a car, sell it as parts. This pivot protects your bottom line.
Wrap Up
In 2026, the business model of simply moving cars "from left to right" won't cut it. However, if you accurately grasp the regulatory gaps and the timing of relaxations, there are massive opportunities for profit while competitors retreat.
Keep your information updated and stay flexible!
(End of the January 2026 Market Analysis Blog)
References
The Insider – Investigative Journalism Outlet
Report on sanctions circumvention and related trade flows
https://theins.ru/en/news/276169Ministry of Finance, Japan – Trade Statistics of Japan
https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htmNew Zealand Government – Official Announcement
Easing the cost of new and used imported vehicles
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/easing-cost-new-and-used-imported-vehiclesUNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development)
Maritime trade under pressure, growth set to stall in 2025
https://unctad.org/news/maritime-trade-under-pressure-growth-set-stall-2025Kenya Bureau of Standards (KEBS) – Related Media Reports
(Business Insider Africa / The Star)
https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/kenya-announces-fresh-restrictions-for-importation-of-second-hand-vehicles/pf5t2lf
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