Hello everyone.
Below is my outlook for the February 2026 USS auction market.
Important: This is a forward-looking view based on publicly available data and historical patterns. It is not a guarantee.
This outlook assumes: (1) FX remains broadly weak, (2) export demand stays firm, and (3) there is no sudden supply shock or macro disruption.
1) My Base Case for February (High Probability, Not Certainty)
If current conditions largely hold, February is more likely than not to remain a seller-leaning market, with pricing biased to the upside.
Base-case ranges:
- Average contract price: JPY 1,360,000 – 1,385,000
(a retest above January levels is plausible, though not assured) - Contract rate: ~68.5% – 71.5%
(still elevated by historical standards) - Listings: ~280,000 – 290,000 units
(a modest increase from January)
A meaningful downside move typically requires one of the following: sharp yen strengthening, a clear export demand slowdown, or a larger-than-expected supply release.
2) January Was Unusually Strong (Numbers That Matter)
Before forecasting February, we need to anchor on January’s actual performance. January was notable because price strength and clearance strength moved together.
- 2026
- 2025
| 2026 Results | Number of auctions | Number of consigned vehicles | Number of contract completions | Contract completion rate | Average price of vehicles contracted (thousand yen) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current FY | Previous FY | Current FY | Previous FY | Changes | Current FY | Previous FY | Changes | Current FY | Previous FY | Current FY | Previous FY | Changes | |
| Apr. | 80 | 74 | 327,914 | 259,384 | 126.4% | 200,476 | 176,964 | 113.3% | 61.1% | 68.2% | 1,065 | 1,122 | 94.9% |
| May | 64 | 64 | 290,251 | 238,380 | 121.8% | 187,194 | 171,292 | 109.3% | 64.5% | 71.9% | 1,184 | 1,203 | 98.4% |
| Jun. | 72 | 78 | 289,533 | 255,968 | 113.1% | 183,429 | 181,720 | 100.9% | 63.4% | 71.0% | 1,230 | 1,239 | 99.2% |
| Jul. | 81 | 80 | 306,955 | 248,875 | 123.3% | 203,188 | 175,922 | 115.5% | 66.2% | 70.7% | 1,244 | 1,256 | 99.0% |
| Aug. | 63 | 64 | 233,141 | 227,094 | 102.7% | 162,263 | 156,107 | 103.9% | 69.6% | 68.7% | 1,224 | 1,242 | 98.5% |
| Sep. | 74 | 72 | 276,888 | 258,112 | 107.3% | 194,631 | 176,284 | 110.4% | 70.3% | 68.3% | 1,303 | 1,240 | 105.1% |
| Oct. | 82 | 81 | 314,395 | 291,463 | 107.9% | 216,185 | 194,290 | 111.3% | 68.8% | 66.7% | 1,305 | 1,234 | 105.7% |
| Nov. | 78 | 81 | 292,696 | 300,874 | 97.3% | 199,242 | 190,922 | 104.4% | 68.1% | 63.5% | 1,297 | 1,184 | 109.6% |
| Dec. | 72 | 72 | 256,699 | 246,285 | 104.2% | 169,328 | 147,754 | 114.6% | 66% | 60% | 1,252 | 1,133 | 110.5% |
| Jan. | 70 | 66 | 272,007 | 255,828 | 106.3% | 189,320 | 165,560 | 114.4% | 69.6% | 64.7% | 1,346 | 1,250 | 107.7% |
| Feb. | |||||||||||||
| Mar. | |||||||||||||
| Total | 736 | 732 | 2,860.479 | 2,582,263 | 110.8% | 1,905.256 | 1,736,815 | 109.7% | 66.6% | 67.3% | 1,246 | 1,211 | 102.8% |
| 2025 Results | Number of auctions | Number of consigned vehicles | Number of contract completions | Contract completion rate | Average price of vehicles contracted (thousand yen) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current FY | Previous FY | Current FY | Previous FY | Changes | Current FY | Previous FY | Changes | Current FY | Previous FY | Current FY | Previous FY | Changes | |
| Apr. | 74 | 78 | 259,384 | 293,022 | 88.5% | 176,964 | 162,121 | 109.2% | 68.2% | 55.3% | 1,122 | 883 | 127.1% |
| May | 64 | 62 | 238,380 | 227,077 | 105.0% | 171,292 | 141,727 | 120.9% | 71.9% | 62.4% | 1,203 | 950 | 126.6% |
| Jun. | 78 | 76 | 255,968 | 274,839 | 93.1% | 181,720 | 171,557 | 105.9% | 71.0% | 62.4% | 1,239 | 1,085 | 114.2% |
| Jul. | 80 | 78 | 248,875 | 250,981 | 99.2% | 175,922 | 158,822 | 110.8% | 70.7% | 63.3% | 1,256 | 1,066 | 117.8% |
| Aug. | 64 | 63 | 227,094 | 210,876 | 107.7% | 156,107 | 136,832 | 114.1% | 68.7% | 64.9% | 1,242 | 1,038 | 119.7% |
| Sep. | 72 | 81 | 258,112 | 276,840 | 93.2% | 176,284 | 179,444 | 98.2% | 68.3% | 64.8% | 1,240 | 1,074 | 115.4% |
| Oct. | 81 | 74 | 291,463 | 252,343 | 115.5% | 194,290 | 162,691 | 119.4% | 66.7% | 64.5% | 1,234 | 1,063 | 116.1% |
| Nov. | 81 | 79 | 300,874 | 277,041 | 108.6% | 190,922 | 176,359 | 108.3% | 63.5% | 63.7% | 1,184 | 1,061 | 111.6% |
| Dec. | 72 | 72 | 246,285 | 235,504 | 104.6% | 147,754 | 145,068 | 101.9% | 60.0% | 61.6% | 1,133 | 1,016 | 111.5% |
| Jan. | 66 | 62 | 255,828 | 212,848 | 120.2% | 165,560 | 144,694 | 114.4% | 64.7% | 68.0% | 1,250 | 1,080 | 115.8% |
| Feb. | 72 | 73 | 285,371 | 266,985 | 106.9% | 188,436 | 188,604 | 99.9% | 66.0% | 70.6% | 1,260 | 1,185 | 106.3% |
| Mar. | 78 | 81 | 334,368 | 306,173 | 109.2% | 219,907 | 218,724 | 100.5% | 65.8% | 71.4% | 1,116 | 1,100 | 101.5% |
| Total | 882 | 879 | 3,202,002 | 3,084,529 | 103.8% | 2,145,158 | 1,986,643 | 108.0% | 67.0% | 64.4% | 1,206 | 1,055 | 114.3% |
January 2026 results (USS monthly data)
- Listings: 272,007 units
- Contracts: 189,320 units
- Contract rate: 69.6%
- Average contract price: JPY 1,346,000
January 2025 (comparison baseline from the same USS table)
- Listings: 255,828 units
- Contracts: 165,560 units
- Contract rate: 64.7%
- Average contract price: JPY 1,250,000
YoY changes (Jan 2026 vs Jan 2025)
- Price: +JPY 96,000 (+7.7%)
- Contract rate: +4.9 points (69.6% → 64.7%)
- Listings: +16,179 (+6.3%)
- Contracts: +23,760 (+14.4%)
Why this matters:
Normally, when prices rise sharply, buyers hesitate and clearance weakens. This time, clearance improved despite higher pricing—often a sign of inventory pressure on the buy side.
3) Why Strength Could Persist (Three Plausible Tailwinds)
(1) FX remains a key lever
A weak yen effectively increases JPY buying power for overseas buyers with fixed foreign-currency budgets. If FX stays weak, elevated bidding behavior can remain rational, especially in export-preferred categories.
(2) Export demand still looks structurally supportive
Japan’s used car exports continue to be discussed as strong across multiple regions (Africa, Middle East, North America/Oceania). Even if month-to-month trade figures fluctuate, the broader narrative suggests exports can remain a price-floor factor. (Official trade statistics are typically associated with Ministry of Finance Japan releases, though interpretation can vary.)
(3) Domestic fiscal year-end sourcing pressure (March effect)
February often features “pre-March” urgency among dealers and specialty shops. If retail inventory constraints persist, sourcing pressure can remain elevated into February.
4) Seasonality: February Has Often Been Firmer Than January (Observed, Not Guaranteed)
This is not a law, but it has been observed recently:
- FY2025: Jan JPY 1,250,000 → Feb JPY 1,260,000 (higher)
- FY2024: Jan JPY 1,080,000 → Feb JPY 1,185,000 (higher)
Given that January 2026 already started from a very high base (JPY 1,346,000), even a modest seasonal uplift could put JPY 1.37M+ within reach—if demand remains firm.
5) Category Watchlist (Where Competition May Concentrate)
Even in a broadly rising market, certain segments often attract more aggressive bidding:
- Compacts / Hatchbacks (e.g., Yaris, Fit):
Fuel efficiency and export suitability can keep late-model units competitively priced. - SUVs / Cross-country (e.g., Harrier, Land Cruiser):
Often most sensitive to FX and export demand; bidding intensity can remain high. - Commercial vehicles (e.g., HiAce, Probox):
Domestic logistics + overseas infrastructure demand can compress supply and support pricing, even at higher mileage.
Summary: Bias Upward, With Clear Invalidation Triggers
Base case: February remains hot, with price action biased upward and clearance staying strong as long as FX and export demand remain supportive.
Main downside triggers to watch:
- sharp yen strengthening
- visible export demand cooling
- unexpected supply surge
Disclaimer: This article is a market outlook based on publicly available data and historical patterns. Please make trading decisions at your own risk.
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